The “South China Morning Post” analyzed that China, in its ongoing efforts to expand its influence in East Asia, is seeking to establish closer military ties with its neighbors in the region, while the United States is similarly trying to draw China into a competition over influence in this area.
According to ISNA, the English-language newspaper “South China Morning Post” analyzes that as China seeks to establish increasingly closer military relations with its Southeast Asian neighbors, it has entered into a competition with the U.S. over “forming partnerships.”
This competition between the U.S. and China has arisen amid escalating tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Recently, there have been repeated reports of collisions and confrontations between Chinese coast guard forces and the Philippines in the South China Sea, near a series of disputed islands.
Traditionally, China has maintained deeper military relations with Cambodia and Laos in Southeast Asia; however, this year Beijing has sought to deepen its relationships with countries such as Indonesia, Singapore, and East Timor.
Song Zhongping, a military commentator and former instructor in the People’s Liberation Army, stated that Beijing considers establishing political trust with members of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) essential.
He noted that the U.S. is conducting more joint exercises in the South China Sea aimed at provoking “island disputes and China,” and that it encourages regional countries to engage in confrontations to “slow down” China’s development.
China has repeatedly accused Washington of emboldening the Philippines—its security partner—to engage in resupply missions to Philippine Navy outposts in several disputed areas, including the coastal barriers of “Second Thomas” and more recently “Sabina,” leading to confrontations with Beijing.
In response, the Chinese military has intensified its patrols in the South China Sea, particularly following recent military drills and activities conducted by the U.S. and its allies in these waters. China claims nearly all of the resource-rich South China Sea as its territory; however, several other countries in the region, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, have conflicting territorial claims.
In its competition for influence with China, Washington has also sought to strengthen military cooperation with allies in the Indo-Pacific region, such as Manila and Tokyo.
In June and July, six ASEAN member countries participated in a biennial exercise organized by the U.S. known as “Pacific Edge.” However, organizers claimed that China was excluded due to its “reluctance to adhere to international standards, laws, or norms.”
Chad Esbarajia, a researcher at the Institute for Defense Analyses and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, stated that the current regional climate is defined by competition between two superpowers.
He remarked: “Their competition revolves around establishing partnerships and alliances, which will escalate and become uglier.”
The “South China Morning Post” analyzes that through its joint exercises with ASEAN countries, China pursues two main objectives: sending political signals and providing security support to less developed nations. Additionally, it conducts annual “Falcon Strike” exercises with Thailand—an ally of the U.S.—which gained increased attention this year due to incorporating rare combat equipment.
According to data extracted and analyzed by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), from 2019 to 2023, China was Thailand’s largest arms supplier. This contrasts with Thailand sourcing only 18% of its arms from China between 2014 and 2018.
Colin Koh, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, stated that while expanding its economic influence in the region, China hopes to compel Southeast Asian nations to consider Beijing’s interests regarding the South China Sea and Taiwan.
He noted that among China’s interests—particularly concerning key waterways—is whether these nations grant access to U.S. forces or their allies for bases or logistical support as well as flight rights over their airspace.
China has primarily advanced security partnerships with countries in the South China Sea based on a non-alliance principle that does not allow for access to military bases; however, recent reports indicate that Beijing has gained “exclusive access” to Cambodia’s Ream naval base, which it funds.
Other recent military interactions by China in the region include a joint exercise with Singapore’s army earlier this month. This exercise marked the first time it occurred consecutively for two years and is expected to become institutionalized between both countries.
China is also working on expanding its security partnership with East Timor—a small underdeveloped island nation currently observing ASEAN.
Southeast Asia is currently the only region globally where China’s joint military exercises have returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. The U.S. Naval War College reported that last year alone saw 14 such exercises conducted in this area.
Statistics indicate that 13 joint exercises were held between China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Southeast Asian armies in 2019.
In fact, last year most of China’s joint military exercises were conducted with its neighbors in Southeast Asia; subsequently, it held five exercises with Russia followed by three more with Western Asian countries.
Additionally, reports indicate that Chinese naval assets’ movements within Southeast Asian ports have also returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Huang Qinhao, an assistant professor at Singapore National University stated: “While there may be an increase in China’s military interactions such as joint exercises; we have yet to see an increase in their complexity.”
He added: “However, we should not assume that this complexity will not increase. We must wait and see how China and its regional counterparts decide to expand their military cooperation.”
Zhao Weihua, director of the Center for China’s Relations with Neighboring Countries at Fudan University in Shanghai stated: “We have observed an overall trend of strengthening security cooperation between China and its neighboring countries. It is likely that collaborations and joint exercises between China and its neighbors—like recent drills with Singapore—will become more regularized and systematic.”
