Kursk attack, opportunity or big mistake?

Eviralnews, in an article, the American media investigated Ukraine’s attack on the “Kursk” region in Russian territory and reported that this operation could impose heavy costs on the Ukrainian armed forces.

According to Foreign Affairs, this attack temporarily brought Ukraine out of the dark days of the war, but now Kyiv must decide to continue. In this report, pointing out that such an attack has significant risks and costs, it is stated: “This attack has not yet managed to remove a significant part of Russian forces from the eastern regions of Ukraine, and it is still unclear how the Ukrainian leaders intend to use this tactical success to turn into strategic or political achievements.”

Ukraine has withdrawn some of its best troops from the Eastern Front to use their skills in the Kursk operation, weakening the other fronts. Kiev has started the operation with the hope that it will not lose its other positions in other parts of the front lines and will not suffer heavy and effective casualties in Kursk. Kiev’s premise is that the benefits of attacking Kursk will outweigh the costs incurred on other fronts.

The leaders of the Ukrainian army hoped that Russia would withdraw its forces from the eastern front and Donetsk, but Alexander Sirsky, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, recently announced that Moscow had strengthened its positions on these fronts and sent its most ready combat units to the Pokrovsk front. sent in Donetsk. According to the American media, Ukraine hopes to use its control over Kursk as leverage against Moscow in possible future negotiations, but it is difficult for Ukraine to control this region and with the coming of winter, it will be even more difficult.

Uncertain achievements

According to Foreign Affairs, although Ukraine’s attack on Kursk raised the weak morale of Ukrainian soldiers and stunned Russia, the Ukrainians have not yet been able to destroy the amount of Russian equipment and forces that would affect the country’s ability to attack. Also, the prisoners taken by Ukraine mainly include border guards, conscripts and Chechen “Akhmat” forces, and many of them have been exchanged with Ukrainian prisoners of war since the beginning of the operation.

Moreover, the attack on Kursk does not destroy Russia’s superiority in terms of numbers of troops and equipment. According to Foreign Affairs, Russia has a clear advantage in terms of manpower, equipment and ammunition and has been able to continuously control 750 square miles of Ukrainian territory since October 2023. Even with the Kursk operation, the Russian forces did not stop their advance and continued on their way.

According to this publication, Russian advances since the beginning of the Kursk attack have put Ukrainian cities at risk, especially the important and strategic city of Pokrovsk, which is an important highway, and Ukraine is now forced to partially evacuate it. Ukraine may be forced to double retreat and cede more of its territory to Moscow due to the intensification of Russian pressure. According to Foreign Affairs, fighting in a defensive position is always less expensive, and from this point of view, Ukraine’s attack on Kursk puts the power and resources of the country’s armed forces in double danger.

The American media also reported that if the Ukrainian forces sent to Kursk do not return, they will not be able to counter Russian advances inside Ukraine, and Ukraine’s position along the front lines will be weaker than before. The report states: “If this operation could remove a significant part of Russian forces from other fronts, the result would be worth the risk, but so far the evidence does not show that.”

That Ukraine attacked Kursk despite all these risks indicates that its leaders felt a strong need to take a new step and take the initiative, a need that may have been triggered by the possibility of Donald Trump winning the US election. and forcing Kiev to negotiate with Moscow. Kiev wanted to be in a better position in future negotiations, but Foreign Affairs says that no negotiations were on the horizon, and instead of attacking Kursk, Kiev could have waited until the policies of the next US administration regarding this war were determined.

According to this report, there are currently no negotiations in which Ukraine wants to have the upper hand. In the current situation, Moscow is not willing to negotiate and will probably continue its attacks in order to organize an effective counter-operation in Kursk with the onset of winter and the reduction of the camouflage power of the Ukrainian forces due to the reduction of vegetation.

According to Foreign Affairs, Ukraine had other options available at this time of the war. Kiev could focus on defending against the Russian advance, and while reorganizing its army, launch long-range attacks into Russian territory. Ukraine could put pressure on Russia’s military and economic infrastructure, and its new soldiers could be sent to the front lines to strengthen Ukraine’s positions.

Russia finds itself

Although unlike the previous operations, Ukraine acted very secretively this time and surprised Russia by hiding the details of this operation in the first days, but Moscow is now sending reinforcements to the region and the situation will change in the coming weeks.

So far, Russia has withdrawn part of its forces from the Zaporizhia and Kharkiv fronts, while maintaining its offensive operations in the eastern cities of Pokrovsk, Tursk, and Kupyansk. Moscow has prioritized moving its drone strike units because they are faster to relocate and have less impact on Russian offensive operations than infantry reserves.

According to this media, Russia continues to prioritize offensive operations in Ukraine and is trying to counter the Kursk operation with the least possible force. Moscow is also considering the possibility that the attack on Kursk is not the only planned invasion of Ukraine, and that Kiev has plans to carry out offensive operations in other parts of Russia.

Despite Ukraine’s attacks in Kursk, Russia has managed to get so close to the vital city of Pokrovsk that it is now under Russian artillery fire, which has caused the evacuation of the city’s residents and halted rail operations. According to Foreign Affairs, Russia can put pressure on a larger part of the Ukrainian forces from this point, and the Ukrainians will be forced to retreat twice in the absence of support forces and limited artillery fire due to the Kursk operation.

Meanwhile, with the organization of more Russian forces and the dispatch of reinforcements, the casualties of Ukraine in Kursk will also increase. The report states: “Ukrainian forces are establishing and stabilizing their position, and Kiev has shown that it intends to establish some kind of military rule in this region. If Ukraine wants to keep control of Kursk for now, it is likely that this front will turn into another boring battle.

What is the purpose?

According to American media, the Ukrainian military is also trying to solve its logistical and communication problems and create a wider buffer zone inside Russia, but not much should be expected. The best scenario for Ukraine is that it can limit Russia to relatively small gains in Donetsk and maintain its position in Kursk with limited forces. However, it is likely that in the coming months Ukraine will lose a significant amount of land in the east and will have no position in Kursk that it can use as leverage against Moscow, a possibility that The depth of Ukraine’s advance on Russian soil increases.

Moreover, the Kursk operation has shown that Ukraine and its Western backers have not yet agreed on a single strategy. Ukraine’s scattered operations, such as its attacks in Crimea and the attack on Kursk, show the lack of a clear strategy.

The report states: “These changes should lead to a revision of the current strategy in this war, of course, if there is a strategy.” Foreign Affairs has evaluated Ukraine’s current attack on Kursk better than this country’s failed attempt to counterattack in 2023; But while emphasizing that Ukraine did not achieve anything in the 2023 operation, he admits that this country has not yet provided a clear definition of victory.