Politics

Netanyahu's game with the American voter's “doubt” card, why the Jews?

Political group of Anna Science and Technology News Agency– Maryam Kharmai: It is supposed to be held in another month on July 24 (August 3); But the worry about what he will say and what effect what he says will have on the votes of President Joe Biden and the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US election has troubled politicians on the left spectrum in the United States.

Although “guaranteeing Israel's security” is the cornerstone of the American regional policy in the framework of a non-partisan approach, the Prime Minister of the Israel regime, Benjamin Netanyahu, will speak at the invitation of the Republicans in the United States legislature.

Word by word, Bibi's words can affect the prospects of the political life of each candidate according to the number of votes added or subtracted from their electoral portfolio.

As it can be seen from the polls, the competition between Biden as the current president and “Donald Trump” who entered the competition field as the former president representing the camp of elephants (Republicans on the right side of the political spectrum) is very tight, and in such a situation, the votes Independent voters or minorities whose choice depends on racial, gender, social and emotional factors determine the fate of elections.

In the twilight of uncertainty ruling the American election atmosphere, which was already foggy due to internal political factors such as the economy, inflation rate and immigration, word for word Bibi (Netanyahu)'s words can affect the prospects of the political life of each candidate in proportion to the votes cast from the basket. Their election will be reduced or added to it.

According to predictions, a large part of Netanyahu's speech that day, which these days is facing a crisis of internal legitimacy due to the failure to fulfill the goals of the Gaza war, which is the release of prisoners and the destruction of Hamas, will be dedicated to appeasing the thoughts of the residents of the occupied territories, and a part will be devoted to praising the support America becomes a Israel regime; But to what extent he sharpens the blade of revenge of the Republican Party in favor of obtaining military-political concessions from the Washington government in order to restore his domestic image, it is not clear.

However, the evidence shows that Bibi unsheathed the sword and drew the knife from the sheath. It was two weeks ago that the Prime Minister of Israel, in a video message, accused the Democrats of the White House of delaying and refusing to provide the weapons needed by the Israel regime.

One of the results of this accusation was the position of the US State Department that the Biden administration only suspended the delivery of the 2,000-pound bomb shipment and the rest of the aid will be provided as before. The second reaction was related to the postponement of the joint meeting to review documents related to Iran's nuclear activities.

But last week, at the beginning of one of the cabinet meetings, Bibi spoke again with a stinging tone about the Biden administration and claimed: “For many weeks, we asked our American friends to speed up the delivery (of weapons). We did this many times. We heard all kinds of explanations, but we did not receive even one (weapon). The situation has not changed.”

The Gaza war and Netanyahu's person are two factors that will affect the outcome of the 2024 US elections separately and also in interaction with each other. Although this influence is small when translated into numbers, in key states with the highest number of undecided voters, it can powerfully push a Democratic or Republican candidate into the White House.

If we focus on Biden as the current helmsman of the White House, the wavering votes (with the possibility of abstaining or throwing a vote in Trump's basket at the 90th minute) that could jeopardize the position of the Democratic candidate in the November election would be from these groups: Jews, Muslims, Arab-Americans, Generation Z, and Black Southerners.

By studying these groups, “Public Wise” categorizes the dangers of the Gaza war on Biden's electoral fate:

* Nationally, 11 percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020 are no longer committed to him, but still favor him.

* 9% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 are no longer committed to him and are not easily convinced to vote for him again.

* The level of approval of Biden's performance in the Gaza war is lower among former disciples who no longer consider themselves committed to him than among other Democrats.

* The undecided voters who are easily persuaded to vote for Biden are relatively younger and lower-income, and an unknown proportion are Latino, Muslim, or of Middle Eastern or African descent.

* Younger voters are more likely to consider only the Gaza war factor as a decision criterion.

The result of this study shows that the Democrats have a difficult way ahead of them to attract the votes of the groups we mentioned earlier and they should try.

Why the Jews?

Although this influence is small when translated into numbers, in key states with the highest number of undecided voters, it can powerfully push a Democratic or Republican candidate into the White House.

From a historical point of view, American Jews tend to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, and since the mid-1980s, Israel has not been their top priority compared to domestic issues.

While Trump did the most favors to the Israel regime with the Ibrahim agreements and the transfer of the American embassy to the occupied Jerusalem during his term of office, in the 2020 election race, about 68% of American Jewish votes went to Biden's electoral basket. This figure for Trump was 30 percent.

Even polls show that if the election were held today, 61% of American Jews would still vote for Biden.

So why is there an assessment that in the November 5 election, Jewish voters could shake the position of Democrat Biden?

The results of a poll show that 87 percent of American Jews believe that anti-Semitic sentiments have increased in the United States since the start of the Hamas-Israel conflict.

The “sense of insecurity of the American Jewish community” is exactly what the Republican Party of the United States and Netanyahu himself are counting on – a factor that can sway votes from Biden's basket to Trump's basket.

But the important question is, how do they play with this card?

In Netanyahu's game with the “insecurity of American Jews” card, the point is that about 72-85% of Jewish voters live in purple states.

On the electoral map of the United States, Republican-leaning states are shown in red and Democratic-leaning states in blue. But those states with the largest number of independent voters, or in other words undecided, are the fateful states that we call them with titles like “Key”, “Grey”, “Pendulum” or “Pandoli” and the reason is that in They, people's opinion is like a pendulum swinging between the two Republican and Democratic candidates, and we don't know until the 90th minute that it will stop in favor of which one of them.

In this round of elections, these purple states can determine the fate of the competition by changing their color to red or blue and present the key to the White House to Trump or Biden.

In Netanyahu's game with the “insecurity of American Jews” card, the point of the story is that about 72-85% of Jewish voters live in purple states.

Many analysts believe that in the upcoming elections, among the key states, the states of Florida (3.1% Jewish), Ohio (1.3% Jewish) and Texas (0.6% Jewish) are likely to be less hesitant to choose a candidate. They have Republicans. But these very hesitant states like Pennsylvania (2.3% Jewish), Arizona (1.5% Jewish), Georgia (1.2% Jewish), Michigan (0.9% Jewish), Wisconsin (0.6% Jewish) and North Carolina (0.4% Jewish), which will determine the outcome of the election with a total of 87 Electoral College votes. It goes without saying that the right to enter the White House is to have 270 electoral votes.

But even in Democratic states with a clear electoral fate, the loss of Jewish votes in favor of Trump is noticeable.

Biden's poor performance in the first election debate even has the capacity to turn certain voters of the Democratic candidate into undecided voters in a reverse process.

About 1.8 million Jewish adults (less than one-third of all Jewish voters) reside in 25 constituencies, half of which (10 precincts) are located in New York State. The “Siena” poll shows an improvement in Trump's position among black and Jewish voters in New York state. He has reduced his popularity gap with Biden to 6 points to attract New York Jewish votes.

As we've said before, the change may be small in numbers, but in key states, turning any “undecided voter” into a “definite voter” can bring candidates one big step closer to the White House.

Speculations suggest that Netanyahu is prolonging the war in hopes of Trump's return to power. In the meantime, Biden's poor performance in the first election debate even has the capacity to turn certain voters of the Democratic candidate into hesitant voters in a reverse process.

What millions of viewers of the first televised debate between the two US presidential candidates last Thursday (June 27) saw, was that Joe Biden frequently lost his words, muttered under his breath, stared into space with his mouth open, and often He could not finish his sentences properly.

Democrats are afraid that if Joe Biden's three years of the presidency have spoiled Joe Biden so much, five years later, at the age of 86, his physical condition, performance, speeches and abilities in general will be much worse.

But as “Euronews” writes, “Democrats are as afraid of the scenarios of Joe Biden leaving as they are of him staying”; Because there is a short distance left until the presidential election, which means that Biden's successor will have very little time to campaign and introduce himself to the American voters. Also, it will not be easy to attract sponsors in this situation.

No matter how realistic the scope of Netanyahu's imagination is about the impact of Trump's return on his political future, the Israeli prime minister has a good opportunity to use the cards of “the doubt of the American Jewish community to enjoy security in the shadow of the weak support of Biden” on July 24. And “the general doubt of the Democrats about the chances of Biden's victory again”, to play and make a jump in the American election pit.

Mhd Narayan

Bringing over 8 years of expertise in digital marketing, I serve as a news editor dedicated to delivering compelling and informative content. As a seasoned content creator, my goal is to produce engaging news articles that resonate with diverse audiences.

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