The ongoing conflict in Gaza has emerged as a pivotal issue in the 2024 US presidential election, with far-reaching implications for both major political parties. As the war enters its seventh month, analysts predict it could outlast the November 5th election, potentially influencing the outcome and the future of US-Israel relations.
The Gaza War’s Impact on the 2024 US Election
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political interests may align with prolonging the war to boost his standing at home. However, this scenario could prove detrimental to President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, as it risks alienating key voter demographics, particularly Arab Americans[1][2].
Recent polls indicate that 88% of Arab Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Gaza crisis, and 80% view the conflict as a crucial factor in determining their vote. In swing states with significant Arab American populations, such as Michigan, this sentiment could significantly impact the election results[2][3].
The Shifting Landscape of US Politics
The Gaza war has led to increased political mobilization among Muslim American voters, many of whom are dissatisfied with both major parties. According to a report by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), 78% of Democrats support a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, while 91% of Muslim voters in swing states say a lasting ceasefire would make them more likely to vote for a candidate[3].
This discontent has driven some voters toward third-party candidates, such as Jill Stein of the Green Party and Cornel West of the People’s Party, who have taken strong stances against US military aid to Israel and called for accountability in the Gaza conflict[3].
The Candidates’ Responses and Strategies
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has attempted to strike a different tone on Gaza compared to Biden. In her first address, she acknowledged the tragedies in Gaza and promised not to be silent, while also affirming her “unwavering commitment” to Israel’s security[4].
However, Harris faces the challenge of balancing the concerns of progressives within her party with the need to maintain support from pro-Israel voters and donors. Her response to protesters in Michigan, where she scolded them for potentially enabling a Trump victory, reflects the delicate position she finds herself in[4].
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has a history of unpredictable support for Israel. While largely silent on the war in Gaza, he has a base that includes influential voices questioning reflexive US support for Israel. Trump’s campaign has also made efforts to attract Arab American voters in key swing states[4][5].
The Road Ahead
As the 2024 election approaches, both major parties face increasing pressure to address the concerns of Muslim American voters, particularly on the issue of Gaza. The candidates’ ability to navigate this complex landscape could have significant implications for the outcome of the election and the future of US foreign policy in the region.
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