The impact of Venezuela's unrest on Tehran-Caracas relations/Ala'ai: Iran should be smart to prevent economic damage

Zainab Ismaili: Once again, the elections in Venezuela are tied to allegations of fraud, and the United States and allied countries accept Edmundo Gonzalez as the winner of the election. Nicolas Madur believes that he is stopping the coup in this country and so far two thousand people have been arrested. We had a conversation with Mustafa Alaei, the former ambassador of Iran in Venezuela, about America's goals of interfering in this country and the status of joint economic projects between Caracas and Tehran. Alaei believes that Iran and Venezuela can cooperate in various fields and chaos in this country will harm the interests of both countries. However, he emphasizes that “Iran should participate with full intelligence in the areas of the economy that will not suffer great or irreparable losses in the event of political chaos.” The opposing position of America in facing the leftist government in Venezuela can become more complicated with the arrival of Trump.

Read this conversation below:

Why are the recent elections in Venezuela associated with the discussion of fraud and ultimately street conflict?

Venezuela, as one of the powerful and rich South American countries, has always been under the rule of right and national forces after independence. It was not digestible for the right-wing forces that a young officer named Hugo Chavez could take the government and the country's sovereignty out of their sphere of power and rule the left-wing government. Therefore, it was expected that after Chavez's rule, the era of leftism in Venezuela would end. In such a situation, Maduro, who was Chavez's foreign minister, came to power and started a new era that the opposition could not accept in any way. Therefore, with the strong resistance of the opposition, the period of widespread violence against Maduro began. This resistance naturally extended to the field of elections and ballot boxes. Therefore, the issue of election fraud to question Maduro and his government is not far from expected. Because it has been one of the tools of the right-wing struggle against leftism in general and the Maduro regime in particular. For this reason, the recent era of elections in Venezuela has always been associated with the issue of fraud and violence and has continued after that. I cannot comment on the content of the allegations regarding fraud in the recent elections, because I do not have enough tools and information. But it is obvious that America, the West, and the opposition, due to their strong opposition to the continuation of Maduro's rule and left-wing rule in rich Venezuela (in terms of energy resources and mines), have and will use any means, including fraud claims, to bring down this government.

In the recent case, similar to the previous elections in Venezuela, America and other countries accept Madero's opponent as the winner. What events does this path shape inside Venezuela?

As I said, America, the West and some right-wing countries in the region have always used any means, including fraud, to defeat the left-wing government of Maduro. The West has also supported Juan Guaidó and Maduro's opponents in the parliament in previous periods and supported Guaidó as the elected president of the people and the National Assembly. It was interesting that in Venezuela, during some periods of Maduro's rule, the parliament continued to work as one of the pillars of government and attacked Maduro from the bastion of the parliament legally and based on the principle of separation of powers and questioned the legitimacy of his government. . This official confrontation between the parliament and the government in the whole governance has caused severe polarization in the society and continued the violence in favor of one pole of the government. This situation and the support of the West to the opposition caused the weakening of Maduro's government and the severe weakening of the Venezuelan economy, which is still ongoing. It seems that if Trump comes to power in America, leftism will be under more pressure and new violence will occur.

You were the ambassador in Venezuela, according to your own experience, do the people of this country still tend to the leftist candidates or not?

Historically, Venezuela and Latin America have experienced a long and special period of colonialism and domination by Spain and other European countries. According to the Monroe Doctrine, America considers Latin America, including Venezuela, to be its private life.

Historically, the people of the region, under the leadership of Bolivar and other freedom-loving leaders, showed strong resistance against colonial rule in the past centuries. Therefore, leftism has strong roots in Venezuela. In addition, the special demographic composition of Latin America, including Arab immigrants to the region and old citizens of Asian and African countries, has strengthened the power of leftism. Therefore, a part of the Venezuelan people, especially in recent times, have leftist sentiments and traditionally support the government of Chávez and its successor, Maduro. During the time of the embassy, ​​I witnessed that when opposition demonstrations are held, Maduro's supporters also demonstrate against them in another part of the city. Therefore, it is natural that a significant group of people still vote for leftist candidates.

Why is a country like America so important to Venezuela issues that it takes a position? What potential does this country have for America that it has not abandoned for decades?

As it was said before, America has geopolitically defined Latin America as its backyard and in its sphere of influence. After replacing the dominance of European countries on Latin America, the United States expands its interests in South America and protects it. With the rise of communism and the power of the Soviet Union during the Cold War and the rise of new countries such as China, Russia, Brazil, and India in the division of global power and the management of global goods such as energy, America saw and sees its interests in this region in danger. In addition, the presence of Iran does not reflect the geopolitical aspects of the Middle East and the strengthening of militant groups and the expansion of economic relations with Venezuela at the same time. Especially since Venezuela is the largest oil country in the world and America has calculated many potential and actual interests in this country. Venezuela is an influential member of the oil OPEC, and if the United States rules over this country, it can act in its favor in balancing the oil price. Venezuela is a country close to the Caribbean countries and can influence their international opinions and political trends in these countries. Cuba is an example that shows the mutual effect of the two countries of Venezuela and Cuba. Venezuela is the northernmost country of South America and has a wide sea coast, which in terms of naval power can deprive the United States of assistance or concessions.

Therefore, it is natural that America has always put the situation in Venezuela on its agenda and has tried to influence this country through political, economic and security processes and tools.

Considering the points you mentioned, how important can economic relations with Venezuela be for Iran? If it is calm, can it affect our economic relations?

In the current world order, where communication is the key, and with the discovery and emergence of multiple sources of power in the world, every country with power and resources tries to expand its presence and sphere of influence in every region of the world. Iran, which is on the path of competition with countries in its region such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia and countries in the south of the Persian Gulf and the like, is trying to use the political environment and friendship based on opposition to America with Venezuela and, as far as possible, common interests with this country and In this way, to define with other friendly countries in Latin America. In the political axis, it is useful to promote cooperation in international institutions and develop anti-domination thinking in the region and help Venezuela in this direction. In the economic field, Iran can help Venezuela in creating development infrastructures, especially in oil and related industries, automobile industry and in the fields of agriculture and mining, thus promoting its interests in this country. The stronger the economic and financial situation of Venezuela and the more peace there is in this country, the wider the interests of Iran will be with regard to the economic projects between the two countries. Therefore, the relationship with Venezuela can be strategic for Iran due to the fact that it is an important and influential country in the Latin American region.

What if the chaos in Venezuela continues? Will the investments made between Iran and Venezuela not be lost?

It was previously said that peace and security in Venezuela helps to improve the relations between the two countries and increases the interests of both countries in the fields of international politics, economy and trade. On the contrary, chaos in this large South American country will weaken the interests of both countries. In the meantime, Iran should participate with complete intelligence in the areas of the economy so that it does not suffer great or irreparable losses in the event of political chaos.

The important point is that, basically, Iran's relations with countries should be such that it does not suffer losses and face unnecessary enmities during political developments and changes of governments and governments. The international environment and the nature of international relations is not a place to swear by a particular order. International relations are fluid and dynamic and interests are also variable.

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