The need to be alert to the possibility of Netanyahu creating a crisis again
The American elections are experiencing the closest competition these days. The initial excitement of the candidacy of “Harris” has subsided a bit and the heavy competition is evident.
Polls at the national level show Harris about 3 percentage points ahead of Trump, but the situation is very uncertain in swing states.
The latest polls show that in the states of Wisconsin and Michigan, “Harris” is clearly ahead, and “Trump” is ahead in Arizona. However, in the three states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, none of the two candidates has a significant distance from the other.
In foreign policy, the Gaza war is still one of the most influential events on the American elections. Anyone who supports Israel more openly will gain the support of the influential American Jewish lobby and lose the votes of Muslims and progressive movements, and vice versa.
In the note on August 14, “American elections; Uncertainty”, it was stated that Netanyahu's approach is to continue the war for his own survival and to bring Trump to victory. This is the point of view that American domestic analysts have also mentioned. It seems that Netanyahu and Trump have reached a strategic alliance. No president in America has supported the occupation as much as Trump. In the idea of annexing not only Gaza, but also the West Bank, Netanyahu has shown that he is showing unprecedented generosity in annexing Palestinian lands to Israel.
The only difference between the two is that Netanyahu believes in the idea of ”complete victory” and Trump believes in the idea of ”quick victory” that both will have a common result, failure to agree on a ceasefire in the current situation! Another common point of these two ideas is its dangerousness. The idea of Netanyahu's complete victory, a permanent war with genocide and the idea of Trump's quick victory raises the possibility of immediate dangerous actions. The third point of commonality between these two ideas is its failure due to ignoring “currents of resistance” and “Palestinian people”. These ideas may create new crises and genocides, but the past eleven months have shown that they could not force the suffering people of Palestine to surrender.
Perhaps, the idea of assassinating martyrs “Ismail Haniyeh” and “Fouad Shakur” is also the result of Netanyahu's “strategic alliance” and “cooking” since his last meeting with Trump. It is possible that the mastermind of the assassination of Shahid Soleimani presented him with the necessity of higher risk measures in order to achieve the illusion of a quick victory.
The importance of the regional crisis for Netanyahu and Trump lies in the fact that in the current situation, the American elections are “tied by a hair”. In other words, the result of the winner will be determined by several thousand votes in some swing states, and the final result of the challenging American election may depend on those few thousand votes.
The next Tuesday's debate, if it has a clear winner, can be influential in determining the situation in the coming months, and if it does not have a clear winner, then we will see one of the most intense and close contests that will even take days to come. After all, it may not be possible to guess who will win the election.
If Netanyahu sees his situation and that of Trump under threat, if he can, he will not only prevent the cease-fire, but he may take more dangerous actions than the assassination of Haniyeh and Shakur, in order to create a wide-ranging crisis, on the one hand, the internal space of Israel and On the other hand, the American elections will be influenced by warmongers. The possibility of “Netanyahu's” more dangerous strategy, whether in the form of large-scale assassinations or in the form of expanding the crisis and even using prohibited weapons, requires the awakening of the world, the region, Iran and the “Axis of Resistance”.
On the other hand, the Democrats, who have so far fully supported Israel and are partners in the Israeli genocide, clearly see Netanyahu in Trump's right-wing camp. Democrats are not expected to act in favor of the Palestinian people, but logically, in order to protect their interests, they should make maximum efforts to establish a ceasefire in order to enter the elections in a ceasefire environment. This action has no more than two ways; Convincing Netanyahu to a truce, or pushing him aside in any way, and maybe a combination of a truce and pushing him aside. Because even assuming a ceasefire, the possibility of Netanyahu's adventure in another front, whether near or far, is not unlikely.
We have to wait and see in the coming days and weeks, which internal flow of America will have the greatest impact on the internal flow of Israel or vice versa.
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