Brussels worried about the political chaos after the European elections in France

Eviralnews, the German newspaper “Wirtschaftswoche” in an article addressed the political chaos after the electoral defeat of the French President Emmanuel Macron's party in the European elections and wrote: “If Macron's condition does not come to fruition and the right wing What will happen if an extremist takes over the French government?

Compared to the situation in Germany, it can be imagined that, for example, one morning “Friedrich Mertes”, the leader of the Christian Democratic Party of Germany, advises his party to form an alliance with an extreme alternative party for Germany in the next election in order to win the lefts and liberals. to defeat In this case, the cries and criticisms in the Christian Democratic Party will be intense, and Mertes will be forced to resign the next day by the board of directors and the board of directors.

This is the situation in which the so-called sister party of the Christian Democratic Party, the conservative Christian Democratic Republican Party, is in France. The party's leader, Eric Ciotti, had tried to get his party to join an electoral coalition with the radical right-wing National Assembly (RN) for early elections to the National Assembly on June 30. Despite a firestorm of protest that immediately erupted within the party, Cioti refused to resign, and he was subsequently expelled from the party.

On Wednesday morning, he appeared in front of the headquarters of the Republican Party in Paris without any worries and asked to enter. Until the court decides, Ciotti argued, he is the president-elect.

In this situation, it is not only in France that people are shaking their heads because of this political chaos, but Brussels is also worried about this important neighboring country.

Immediately after Ciotti's failed maneuver, the European People's Party, as the Christian Democratic and Conservative Party Alliance, sent a message to the Republican representatives that if they really unite with Marine Le Pen's National Community Party, there is no place for them in the ranks of the EPP faction.

Of course, these conditions create difficult conditions for the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as the President of the European Commission, because every vote is needed in the decision-making process in the European Parliament. But French EPP members immediately assured Manfred Weber (CSU), the leader of this parliamentary faction, that they would remain in the EPP family and would not seek connections with the right wing.

After French President Emmanuel Macron's surprise announcement of new elections and the ousting of Ciotti, the party's prospects in France have resembled a disorganized flock of chickens. Candidates must be nominated by the first round of voting on June 30 in France in 577 Republican constituencies. Just one week later, on July 7, the decisive second round of voting will take place. Organizers complain that this creates huge problems for all parties and voter lists cannot be fully organized everywhere in the remaining two weeks. If the election is too irregular, one should expect challenges and complaints, especially from those who lost.

French experts such as Sophie Pournchelgel of the Jacques Delors Institute in Brussels are wondering whether this maneuver by the French president will work and whether he can defeat Le Pen's party and its 28-year-old front-runner Jordan Bardella in a direct race. No, there is a lot of doubt. In the EU elections, Bardella's RN achieved its best ever European election result, winning 31.4% of the vote, more than double Emmanuel Macron's coalition. Most observers believe that the RN will take the lead in the first election and that voters from other parties will support Macron in the second round.

In past elections, the unspoken threat that even if the French are not always happy with Macron and his predecessors, they will vote for the current president rather than accept Le Pen and his nationalists, and the message has worked so far. “Pournschelgel”, the French expert, says this time with doubts: I don't know if this threat will work again now because the approval of the current president has reached the lowest level.

Jim Reed, an analyst from Deutsche Bank, also considers this maneuver by “Macron” as a “bold bet” and says: “Political uncertainty has especially shaken French banks.” Shares in BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole fell between 3.6 and 7.5 percent.

The economic and political ramifications of this issue for Europe are huge, as the French ministers who still sit in the EU councils are now only temporary officials and can rarely make decisions. If the RN wins the election and Macron fails to defend his relative majority in the National Assembly, as president he will have to rely on coexistence with right-wing nationalists, which is likely to weaken his position internationally as well as in Brussels. It paralyzes his policy towards the European Union.

Especially in the meantime, the situation for Europe is dire because the second part of Europe's dual leadership in the form of Germany has come out of the European elections severely damaged. The German federal government, on the other hand, is deeply concerned about European policy issues – be it the design of the Green Deal, agricultural and asylum policy or EU financing through social bonds, more aid from member states or EU tax-collecting sovereignty. There is a difference of opinion.

In the continuation of this article, the question has been raised, what does this situation mean for the European economy? “Karsten Brzeski”, the chief economist of ING Bank, sees in this situation the danger that member states will refocus on themselves and their national interests, and that large projects that can only be achieved together in Europe – such as the Capital Markets Union and the Green Deal – in be exposed to danger

Closer integration of national capital markets should now be at the heart of the new Commission's work to improve financing conditions for European companies. This role should be played especially in the case of the goal of climate neutrality.

The fact that investors in Europe now see more risks was evident in the government bond market the day after the election. French, Italian and Greek bond yields rose significantly. Therefore, raising fresh money from the financial market will be much more expensive for these countries. The pressure on the stock markets has already come from Paris.

The extreme party “Marine Le Pen” won with a clear advantage in the European elections on Sunday in France. Bardella, the European Union representative of this party, participated as the main candidate of his party.

After that, French President Emmanuel Macron called for new elections due to the poor performance of the Renaissance liberal party in the European elections. The first round of parliamentary elections is scheduled to be held on June 30 (July 10). If the extreme French party wins this parliamentary election, the 28-year-old Bardella will have the best chance to take over the prime ministership.

Macron hopes to use this risky re-election maneuver to build a more stable majority for the remainder of his presidency.

If this Macron game does not work out, it will be fatal for Germany and Europe. Macron will lose significant power and will no longer be able to easily implement his foreign policy path. It is difficult to imagine a compromise path between the Europe-friendly Macron and the union-skeptic Jordan Bardelay, who also wants to distance himself from Germany.

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